Supply-Demand Inflection Point Established, China’s Polycarbonate Market Enters Upward Channel

Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the supply and demand pattern of China's domestic polycarbonate (PC) industry has kept improving, with market prices fluctuating and rising, and the industry prosperity hitting a clear inflection point. As of early April 2026, the mainstream PC price in East China exceeded 16,500 yuan per ton, with a cumulative increase of over 11% from the low in November 2025. High-end optical-grade and medical-grade products saw a more prominent price surge.

This market upturn is driven by three factors: shrinking supply, cost support and recovering downstream demand. On the supply side, new domestic PC capacity expansion has almost stagnated from 2025 to 2026, marking the end of the large-scale capacity expansion cycle. The industry operating rate remained above 87% all year round, and routine maintenance of some production devices further tightened spot supply. On the cost side, geopolitical risks in the Middle East pushed up crude oil and bisphenol A prices. Meanwhile, 72% of domestic PC production capacity has been equipped with supporting bisphenol A facilities, highlighting the advantages of industrial chain integration.

In terms of industry structure, leading enterprises have further strengthened their dominance. Wanhua Chemical, Luxi Chemical, Covestro China and other leading players consolidated market shares through capacity optimization and technological upgrading. The import dependence of PC dropped from 42.3% in 2021 to 28.7% in 2025, and domestic substitution continued to deepen. Industry insiders generally predict that China’s PC industry will maintain the trend of stable output, rising prices and structural optimization in 2026, with high-end development and green manufacturing becoming the core competition focus in the next stage.