The Polycarbonate Industry Enters a Period of High-Quality Development, Driven by Domestic Substitution and Technological Innovation

China's polycarbonate industry has moved away from extensive growth and entered a critical stage of parallel structural adjustment and high-quality development. Accelerated domestic substitution, continuous technological breakthroughs, and upgraded downstream demand have become the core development characteristics of the industry, driving the steady improvement of industrial competitiveness.

As a core category of high-end engineering plastics, the polycarbonate industry shows obvious characteristics of scaled-up development and increased concentration. By the end of 2024, China's total production capacity reached 3.81 million tons, accounting for 48% of the global total. Leading enterprises such as Wanhua Chemical and Luxi Chemical have consolidated their advantages through the layout of the entire industrial chain, and the industry concentration has continued to increase. At the same time, the effect of domestic substitution is remarkable: the import dependence rate has dropped from 38% in 2019 to 19% in 2024, and the self-sufficiency rate of general-grade products has exceeded 100%.

Technological innovation breaking through high-end barriers is an important highlight of the industry. Recently, Zhongke Zhenxing's optical-grade special polycarbonate and Cangzhou Dahua's 20% silicon content copolymer PC have successively achieved technological breakthroughs, filling the domestic gap, breaking foreign monopolies, and the key indicators of related products have reached international standards. The transformation of green processes is advancing simultaneously, with the popularization rate of non-phosgene method rising to 65%, helping the industry meet the dual-carbon goals.

The downstream demand structure is continuously optimized, and emerging fields have become growth engines. The surging demand in fields such as new energy vehicles, low-altitude economy, and high-end medical care has driven the demand for high-end polycarbonate to rise. However, there is still a structural gap in high-end products such as optical-grade and medical-grade polycarbonate, leaving broad space for domestic production. At present, the industry presents a pattern of "oversupply in low-end products and shortage in high-end products", and differentiated competition has become the key for enterprises to break through.

Industry insiders said that in the future, the industry will focus on the R&D of high-end products and the upgrading of green production capacity, and continue to deepen domestic substitution. With the industrialization of technological achievements, China's polycarbonate industry is expected to gradually break through high-end technological bottlenecks and rank among the world's leading industrial sectors.